North Beach, Joondalup and South Perth enter Round 18 level on 26 points, with differential—and three dramatically different opponents—separating them.
The Val Murphy Trophy Top Four are settled, but the order behind minor premiers Willagee remains wide open.
North Beach, Joondalup and South Perth all carry 13–4 records and 26 competition points into the final round. Their points differentials, however, are separated by 284 points.
North Beach hold second at plus-422, Joondalup are third at plus-258 and South Perth sit fourth at plus-138.
Rockingham are four competition points outside the Top Four. With only two points available, the Sharks cannot qualify—even if they defeat Joondalup.
The Round 18 contest is therefore entirely about finals seeding.
| Team | Points | Differential | Round 18 opponent |
| North Beach Sea Eagles | 26 | +422 | Willagee Bears |
| Joondalup Giants | 26 | +258 | Rockingham Sharks |
| South Perth Lions | 26 | +138 | Kwinana Titans |
| Rockingham Sharks | 22 | +150 | Joondalup Giants |
Willagee are confirmed minor premiers on 30 points. Rockingham are confirmed fifth because their maximum is 24.
The three teams between them can each finish anywhere from second to fourth.
North Beach: Win and second place is effectively theirs
North Beach begin with an enormous differential advantage:
– 164 points over Joondalup
– 284 points over South Perth
If the Sea Eagles defeat Willagee, they move to 28 competition points. Any rival that draws or loses cannot catch them.
If Joondalup also win, the Giants must record a winning margin at least 165 points greater than North Beach’s margin to move ahead on differential.
South Perth would need a margin at least 285 points greater than North Beach’s.
Those differences make the practical equation straightforward – A North Beach victory will almost certainly secure second place.
A draw takes North Beach to 27 points and secures second only if Joondalup and South Perth both fail to win.
If exactly one rival wins, North Beach fall to third. If both win, the Sea Eagles finish fourth.
A loss leaves North Beach on 26 and dependent on both other results. Their huge differential would protect them against ordinary defeats, but any Giants or Lions win would move that team above them on competition points.
The Sea Eagles’ form versus the minor premiers
North Beach have won four consecutive games by a combined 194 points:
– Beat South Perth 46–6
– Beat Kwinana 62–6
– Beat Kalamunda 58–6
– Beat Ellenbrook 52–6
They have scored 218 points and conceded only 24 during that run.
The challenge is that Willagee are themselves on a five-match winning streak, including victories by 98, 44, 24, 18 and 18 points.
The Bears are 15–2, average 42.2 points per match and concede just 11.1. Their plus-530 differential is the best in the competition.
North Beach can draw confidence from the first meeting: the Sea Eagles defeated Willagee 14–10 in Round 9. That remains one of only two Bears losses all season.
A simple attack-versus-defence blend produces an indicative score of approximately Willagee 28, North Beach 25—suggesting second place is far from guaranteed.
Joondalup: victory creates a direct route to second
Joondalup’s cleanest path is – Beat Rockingham and hope North Beach fail to beat Willagee.
A Giants win takes them to 28. If North Beach draw or lose, Joondalup move above the Sea Eagles on competition points.
South Perth could also reach 28, but Joondalup currently hold a 120-point differential advantage. The Lions would need a winning margin at least 121 points greater than the Giants’ margin to pass them.
If North Beach and Joondalup both win, the Giants will almost certainly remain third because they must outperform the Sea Eagles’ winning margin by 165 points.
A draw can still deliver second if North Beach lose and South Perth fail to win.
Rockingham pose a genuine threat
Joondalup’s opponent may be outside the finals, but the Sharks have already beaten the Giants this season.
Rockingham won their Round 9 meeting 28–20.
The Sharks also defeated North Beach 32–28 in Round 13, demonstrating their ability to trouble the competition’s leading teams.
Rockingham have since lost consecutive matches to Willagee and South Perth, while Joondalup won four straight before falling 30–12 to the Bears.
The Giants average 29.6 points scored and 14.5 conceded. Rockingham average 29.5 scored and 20.7 conceded. A basic season-average projection gives Joondalup a narrow 25–22 advantage.
It is a dangerous match for a team attempting to claim second.
South Perth: win first, then watch both scoreboards
South Perth have the most favourable fixture, hosting bottom-placed Kwinana.
The Lions’ path to second is entirely result-driven – Beat Kwinana and hope both North Beach and Joondalup fail to win.
That would take South Perth to 28 while the Sea Eagles and Giants remain on 27 or fewer.
If South Perth and Joondalup both win, the Lions must outperform the Giants’ winning margin by 121 points to overtake them.
If all three contenders win, South Perth would need to outperform North Beach by 285 points and Joondalup by 121—making fourth the overwhelmingly likely position.
A draw moves the Lions to 27 and can produce:
– Second if North Beach and Joondalup both lose
– Third if one rival loses and the other finishes above them
– Fourth if both rivals earn at least one point
Why South Perth remain dangerous
The Lions have won four of their past five, with their only defeat coming against North Beach.
They have also won three straight since that 46–6 loss:
– Beat Fremantle 26–16
– Beat Alkimos 42–12
– Beat Rockingham 26–14
Kwinana are 1–15–1, have lost their past five and carry a minus-606 differential.
South Perth won the first meeting 30–0. A simple season-average projection suggests approximately South Perth 36, Kwinana 14.
Of the three second-place contenders, the Lions appear most likely to win their match. Their problem is that they require help from both Willagee and Rockingham.
The most important permutations
– All three contenders win: North Beach second, Joondalup third and South Perth fourth, barring extraordinary margin reversals.
– North Beach fail to win; Joondalup win: Joondalup take second.
– North Beach and Joondalup fail to win; South Perth win: South Perth take second.
– North Beach draw; Giants and Lions both win: North Beach fall to fourth.
– North Beach lose; Giants and Lions both win: Joondalup are likely second, South Perth third and North Beach fourth.
– All three lose: They remain level on 26 and differential decides the order, with North Beach holding the substantial advantage.
– Rockingham win: The Sharks still cannot qualify.
Val Murphy Trophy verdict
The finals field is fixed:
– Willagee Bears
– North Beach Sea Eagles
– Joondalup Giants
– South Perth Lions
But the final order behind Willagee may change several times during Round 18.
North Beach control the race but face the strongest opponent. Joondalup have the clearest opportunity to capitalise but must reverse an earlier loss to Rockingham. South Perth have the most favourable fixture but need both clubs above them to stumble.
Three teams begin level on 26 points. Only one will emerge with second place.