Author: Aaron

  • Men’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Bears and Lions renew their Grand Final rivalry at Webber Reserve

    Men’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Bears and Lions renew their Grand Final rivalry at Webber Reserve

    The two strongest teams of the 2026 regular season meet at Webber Reserve as Willagee and South Perth renew one of the Men’s Premiership’s defining rivalries.

    Willagee enter as both minor premiers and defending champions. The Bears finished 15–1, while South Perth secured second position at 14–2.
    Together, the teams won 29 of their 32 regular-season matches.

    A rematch carrying recent history
    The semi-final is also a rematch of the 2025 Grand Final, which Willagee won 22–10.

    The teams split their two regular-season meetings in 2026. Willagee produced an impressive 40–18 victory at George Burnett Park in Round 3 before South Perth responded with a 26–16 win at Webber Reserve in Round 12.
    That result remains Willagee’s only defeat of the season.

    South Perth therefore return to a ground where they have already beaten the minor premiers, while Willagee have the opportunity to avenge their only loss and reinforce their championship credentials.

    Willagee’s attack has set the benchmark
    The Bears averaged 49.3 points per game during the regular season while conceding only 13.5. South Perth’s figures—41.1 points for and 14.9 against—were also elite, but Willagee finished with the stronger numbers in both categories.
    Manfred Kelly leads the competition with 26 tries, 10 clear of the next-best total.

    Matthew Lansdown is the leading point-scorer with 222, giving Willagee the competition’s most productive try-scorer and point-scorer in the same team.
    Willagee have won 13 consecutive matches since their Round 12 defeat and enter the finals with five straight victories recorded in their latest form line.

    Lions possess the experience and belief
    South Perth’s longer-term record against Willagee provides an important counterpoint. The Lions have won eight of the 12 meetings recorded between the clubs since 2018.

    They have also demonstrated this season that they can contain the Bears at Webber Reserve.

    Kade McDonald leads South Perth with 13 tries and 154 points, ranking among the leading players in both categories. The Lions enter after a 92–0 victory over Kwinana and have won four of their final five matches.

    South Perth’s challenge will be controlling Willagee’s speed and scoring depth without becoming overly defensive. The Lions possess enough attacking quality to apply pressure of their own, particularly if they can force the Bears to begin sets from poor field position.

    The key numbers

    • Willagee finished first at 15–1; South Perth finished second at 14–2.
    • The Bears averaged 49.3 points for and 13.5 against.
    • The Lions averaged 41.1 points for and 14.9 against.
    • Willagee won the Round 3 meeting 40–18.
    • South Perth won 26–16 at Webber Reserve in Round 12.
    • South Perth’s victory remains Willagee’s only defeat of 2026.
    • Willagee defeated South Perth 22–10 in the 2025 Grand Final.
    • South Perth lead the recorded 2018–2026 head-to-head 8–4.
  • Men’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Roosters seek first win over dangerous Bulldogs

    Men’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Roosters seek first win over dangerous Bulldogs

    Fremantle finished comfortably ahead of Kalamunda on the Men’s Premiership ladder, but the Roosters enter their semi-final knowing they have not beaten the Bulldogs this season.

    The teams produced a 28–28 draw in Round 8 before Kalamunda secured a dramatic 30–28 victory in Round 17.

    Those results give the Bulldogs one win and one draw from two meetings and ensure this contest carries considerably more intrigue than the third-versus-fourth ladder positions might suggest.

    Fremantle own the stronger season record
    The Roosters finished third with an 11–4–1 record and a +286 points differential. They averaged 38.5 points per game while conceding 20.6.
    Kalamunda finished fourth at 7–8–1 with a +4 differential, averaging 29.4 points for and 29.1 against.

    Across the full season, Fremantle were more consistent in attack and defence. The Roosters also demonstrated their scoring ceiling with a 100–0 victory over Kwinana in Round 16—their largest win of the recorded 2018–2026 period.
    Fremantle won four of their final five matches, with their only loss in that sequence coming against Kalamunda.

    Bulldogs have the matchup belief
    Kalamunda’s overall record may be less impressive, but finals are determined by matchups rather than season averages.

    The Bulldogs have already played 160 minutes against Fremantle without losing. They matched the Roosters point for point in their first encounter and then found a way to win the return match by two.

    That success should give Kalamunda confidence that they can absorb Fremantle’s attacking pressure and remain within striking distance late in the contest.

    The Bulldogs’ season has contained significant fluctuations. They recorded an 88–6 victory over Kwinana but also suffered heavy defeats against the leading sides. Their best football is capable of troubling Fremantle; the question is whether they can sustain it across a finals match.

    Roosters need to convert their advantages
    Harry Debique enters the finals as the competition’s third-highest point-scorer with 146. His kicking and attacking influence could be crucial if Kalamunda again force the Roosters into a close finish.

    Fremantle’s priority will be turning their statistical advantages into scoreboard separation. In both regular-season meetings, Kalamunda remained close enough to make the final stages uncomfortable.

    The Roosters cannot afford to assume that their ladder position or superior differential will eventually decide the game. They must establish control early and prevent the Bulldogs from building belief.

    The key numbers

    • Fremantle finished 11–4–1 with a +286 differential.
    • Kalamunda finished 7–8–1 with a +4 differential.
    • The Round 8 meeting finished 28–28.
    • Kalamunda won the Round 17 rematch 30–28.
    • Only two points separated the teams across their two matches combined.
    • Fremantle averaged 9.1 more points per game than Kalamunda.
  • Val Murphy Trophy Semi Final Preview: Sea Eagles aim to complete a season sweep of Willagee

    Val Murphy Trophy Semi Final Preview: Sea Eagles aim to complete a season sweep of Willagee

    Willagee enter the finals as Val Murphy Trophy minor premiers, but North Beach arrive at Webber Reserve carrying the most important head-to-head statistic of all: the Sea Eagles have already beaten the Bears twice this season.

    The Bears finished first with a 15–3 record, scoring 736 points and conceding only 210. Their averages of 40.9 points for and 11.7 against were the strongest in the competition.

    North Beach finished second at 14–4 with a +426 differential, only one victory behind Willagee. Their record would ordinarily make them a dangerous opponent. Their two victories over the minor premiers make them something more significant—a proven threat.

    North Beach have found the formula
    The teams first met at Webber Reserve in Round 9, where North Beach held on for a 14–10 victory. They met again at Blueforce Park in Round 18, with the Sea Eagles prevailing 22–18.

    Both matches were decided by four points.

    North Beach therefore carry a 2–0 season record against Willagee, with an aggregate advantage of only eight points. The results suggest the Sea Eagles have been able to slow the competition’s strongest attack and force the Bears into a style of match they have not consistently faced against other opponents.

    The Round 18 result also gave North Beach five consecutive victories entering the finals while ending Willagee’s winning run.

    Bears still own the competition’s strongest profile
    Despite those defeats, Willagee’s full-season performance cannot be ignored.
    The Bears won 15 of their 18 matches and finished with a remarkable +526 differential. They recorded an average margin of more than 29 points per game and produced several of the competition’s largest victories.

    Te Putu Huriwai-Brown leads the VMT with 168 points, providing Willagee with an elite scoring and goal-kicking option. Archillies Packer and Rashim Pearson both finished the regular season with 13 tries.

    The challenge for Willagee is translating that scoring power against the one defence that has repeatedly contained it.

    Sea Eagles possess their own scoring threats
    North Beach are not simply relying on their defensive record. Bailey Hepper finished level with the competition’s leading try-scorers on 13, while Nicholas Prance accumulated 110 points.

    That gives North Beach the ability to punish Willagee if the Bears become impatient or turn possession over while chasing points.

    The Sea Eagles will also take confidence from returning to Webber Reserve, where they have already won this season. Willagee hold the home-ground advantage, but North Beach possess direct evidence that the Bears can be beaten there.

    The key numbers

    • Willagee finished first at 15–3 with a +526 differential.
    • North Beach finished second at 14–4 with a +426 differential.
    • Willagee averaged 40.9 points for and only 11.7 against.
    • North Beach won both regular-season meetings by four points.
    • Willagee’s three defeats included two losses to North Beach.
    • North Beach enter the semi-final on a five-game winning streak.
  • Val Murphy Trophy Semi Final Preview: Giants and Lions renew an evenly matched rivalry

    Val Murphy Trophy Semi Final Preview: Giants and Lions renew an evenly matched rivalry

    Joondalup and South Perth enter the Val Murphy Trophy finals with identical 14–4 records, making their semi-final one of the most evenly matched contests of the weekend.

    The Giants secured third position through their superior points differential of +276, while the Lions finished fourth at +168. Both collected 28 competition points and both demonstrated throughout the season that they can compete with the competition’s leading sides.

    Their two regular-season meetings provided little separation. South Perth travelled to MNC Drilling Park in Round 2 and earned a 28–22 victory, but Joondalup reversed that result with a 20–12 win at George Burnett Park in Round 11.

    Across those two matches, the aggregate score finished level at 42–42.
    That balance makes execution under finals pressure particularly important. Neither side can claim a clear head-to-head advantage, and the contest may be decided by which team handles possession, field position and the closing stages more effectively.

    Giants carry greater attacking upside
    Joondalup’s superior differential suggests they have been the more explosive team across the full season. The Giants enter the finals after defeating Rockingham 32–14 in Round 18 and have the strike power to quickly turn a close contest.

    Jesse Inall finished the regular season among the competition’s leading try-scorers with 13, while James Smith’s 132 points placed him second in the VMT point-scoring standings.

    That combination gives Joondalup threats both close to the line and from the kicking tee. In a match expected to be tight, Smith’s ability to convert tries and take penalty opportunities could become decisive.

    Lions bring finals-ready resilience
    South Perth’s season was built around consistency. The Lions won 14 matches, scored 448 points and conceded 280, producing average figures of 24.9 points for and 15.6 against.

    Their Round 18 result was a 30–0 forfeit victory over Kwinana, but their most recent played match was a 26–14 win over Rockingham. They enter the finals with four consecutive victories recorded.

    Willington Richard leads South Perth’s available try-scoring records with nine tries from six appearances. Tane Cassidy has contributed 68 points and shapes as an important figure if the semi-final becomes a battle of goal-kicking and scoreboard pressure.

    The Lions have already beaten Joondalup away from home this season, so the venue and third-versus-fourth ladder positions should hold little fear.

    The key numbers

    • Both teams finished 14–4 with 28 competition points.
    • Joondalup finished with a +276 differential; South Perth finished at +168.
    • South Perth won the first meeting 28–22.
    • Joondalup won the return match 20–12.
    • Joondalup enter after a 32–14 victory; South Perth’s last played result was a 26–14 win.
  • Women’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Giants aim to solve Ellenbrook again

    Women’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Giants aim to solve Ellenbrook again

    Ellenbrook Rabbitohs were the dominant team of the 2026 Women’s Premiership regular season, but their semi-final opponent holds a distinction no other side can claim.

    Joondalup Giants are the only team to have beaten them.

    The Rabbitohs finished on top with an outstanding 11–1 record, scoring 404 points while conceding just 58 across the season.

    That defensive record equates to fewer than five points conceded per game and has been one of the major reasons behind Ellenbrook’s success.

    Joondalup, however, have increasingly troubled the minor premiers as the season has progressed.

    Ellenbrook won their first meeting 28–0 and followed that with a 26–8 victory. The Giants then turned the tables in their latest encounter, defeating the Rabbitohs 18–12.

    From Ellenbrook winning the first game by 28 to Joondalup winning the latest by six, the margin has moved 34 points across their three meetings.

    Perhaps most telling is that Joondalup have scored 26 of the 58 points Ellenbrook conceded throughout the entire regular season — almost 45 per cent of all points scored against the Rabbitohs.

    The Giants also arrive with significant momentum, having won their final four matches against Ellenbrook, Willagee, Kalamunda and Fremantle.

    Ellenbrook still possess the competition’s most dangerous scoring attack.

    Tatyana Fisher finished the regular season with 20 tries, while Ocean Tuhua and Kailey Thompson provide further threats in a side capable of quickly turning field position into points.

    The question for Joondalup is whether they can once again turn the game into the lower-scoring contest that suited them in their previous victory.

    If Ellenbrook are allowed to play at their season average of more than 33 points per game, the Giants face a difficult task.

    But Joondalup have already done what nobody else managed during the regular season.

    Now they get the opportunity to prove they can do it twice.

  • Women’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Roosters’ rise puts Bears on notice

    Women’s Premiership Semi Final Preview: Roosters’ rise puts Bears on notice

    Willagee Bears may carry the stronger season record into their Women’s Premiership semi-final against Fremantle Roosters, but recent results suggest there could be far less between the sides than the ladder indicates.

    The Bears finished third with a 6–6 record, scoring 290 points and conceding 178, while Fremantle finished one win behind at 5–7 with a +76 points differential.

    It is their head-to-head progression, however, that makes this match-up particularly interesting.

    Willagee dominated the earlier meeting 26–4, with Tara McNally crossing for a hat-trick as the Bears controlled the contest. When the sides met again later in the season, the result was completely reversed as Fremantle claimed a 20–8 victory.

    That represents a 34-point turnaround in the margin between their last two meetings.

    McNally remains one of Willagee’s biggest attacking weapons after finishing the regular season with 15 tries, but Fremantle showed in their latest meeting that they can keep her off the scoreboard.

    The Roosters have their own dangerous attacking options. Britney Grimes has crossed against Willagee in consecutive games, while Mariah Bell scored twice in Fremantle’s latest victory over the Bears.

    There is little separating the teams defensively either. Willagee conceded an average of 14.8 points per game during the regular season, compared with Fremantle’s 15.3.

    The Bears therefore enter with the stronger overall season numbers, but Fremantle arrive having produced the most convincing recent performance between the clubs.

    For Willagee, the challenge will be finding a way to restore the attacking threat that produced 26 points in their earlier meeting.

    For the Roosters, it will be about proving their latest result was not an isolated performance.

    With Fremantle’s scoring against the Bears improving significantly as the season progressed, this semi-final shapes as a much tighter contest than third against fourth might suggest.

  • Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Familiar rivals close the season with pride at stake

    Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Familiar rivals close the season with pride at stake

    Men’s Premiership, Round 18 — Saturday, 22 August 2026, 3:30 pm at MNC Drilling Park.

    Joondalup and Rockingham will renew one of the competition’s most evenly balanced rivalries in Round 18, even though the finals door has closed for both teams.

    The Giants enter the match seventh on 15 points, while the Sharks are eighth on 12. Joondalup can reach 17 with a victory, but Kalamunda’s Round 18 bye will take the fourth-placed Bulldogs to 19. Rockingham can finish with no more than 14.

    Joondalup can still climb to sixth if they win and Ellenbrook lose to Fremantle. Rockingham are locked into eighth, but a victory would narrow the final gap and end a four-match losing run.

    The season figures favour the Giants. They score 23.7 points per match and concede 26.1, compared with Rockingham’s 18.9 for and 39.2 against. The Sharks have conceded 52 or more in each of their past two outings, falling 60–6 to Willagee and 58–6 to South Perth.

    Joondalup’s results have been inconsistent rather than one-sided. Their last five matches have produced two wins and three losses, but those victories included a 36–26 result over Ellenbrook. They also pushed Willagee in Round 17 before losing 20–14—the Bears’ smallest winning margin since Round 14.

    The historical matchup is far closer than the current defensive numbers. Across 26 Men’s Premiership meetings from 2018 to 2026, Rockingham lead 14 wins to 12. The Sharks average 25.5 points in those games and the Giants 24.4, a difference of only 1.1 points.

    Joondalup won this season’s first meeting 32–22. The previous two encounters were split: Rockingham won 30–20 in Round 14 last year, while Joondalup prevailed 44–32 earlier in the 2025 season.

    Those results suggest Rockingham’s best route is to rediscover the attacking confidence that has historically troubled the Giants. Joondalup’s opportunity is to apply sustained pressure to a defence that has conceded an average of 39.2 points this season.

    A simple season-average blend points to approximately Joondalup 32, Rockingham 23—almost identical to the 32–22 result in Round 9.

    There is no finals berth available, but there remains a tangible reward: Joondalup can climb a position, while Rockingham can finish a difficult season by extending their narrow historical advantage over a familiar rival.

    Key stat: Only two wins and 1.1 average points separate the clubs across 26 Men’s Premiership meetings since 2018.

  • Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Lions target a commanding finals tune-up

    Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Lions target a commanding finals tune-up

    Men’s Premiership, Round 18 — Saturday, 22 August 2026, 3:30 pm at George Burnett Park.

    South Perth will enter Round 18 as overwhelming statistical favourites against Kwinana, but the Lions’ challenge is to convert that advantage into a disciplined performance before the finals.

    The Lions have secured a Top-Two finish with a 13–2 record and 30 competition points. They remain two points behind Willagee, although the Bears’ 242-point differential advantage means a change at the top would require a virtually impossible combined swing across the two final-round matches.

    Kwinana are locked into ninth. The Titans have one victory from 15 matches, have scored 160 points and conceded 864, leaving them with a minus-704 differential.

    The contrast between the teams is stark. South Perth average 37.7 points per match and allow only 15.9. Kwinana score 10.7 and concede 57.6. That creates a 68.7-point gap between the clubs’ average match differentials: South Perth operate at plus-21.8 per game, while Kwinana sit at minus-46.9.

    The Lions have won four of their past five. Their only defeat during that period came against Fremantle, and they responded by defeating Rockingham 58–6 in Round 17. Kwinana have lost five straight and conceded 100 points without reply against Fremantle in Round 16.

    There is only one previous Men’s Premiership meeting between the clubs in the available 2018–2026 record, making the head-to-head sample small but emphatic. South Perth won 78–6 in Round 9 this season. That 72-point margin comfortably exceeded the Lions’ season-average advantage and remains the clearest guide to the scale of the matchup.

    South Perth’s principal danger is not the statistical comparison but complacency. With second place effectively secured and finals ahead, maintaining defensive standards and controlling errors will matter more than chasing a particular margin. Kwinana, meanwhile, can approach the match without ladder pressure and with the opportunity to produce their most significant upset of the season.

    A simple attack-defence blend generates an indicative score of South Perth 48, Kwinana 13. The first meeting suggests the ceiling could be higher, but late-season selections and game management may influence the final margin.

    For the Lions, this is a chance to enter the postseason with rhythm and confidence. For the Titans, competitiveness against a Top-Two opponent would represent meaningful progress regardless of their final ladder position.

    Key stat: South Perth won the clubs’ only previous Men’s Premiership meeting 78–6.

  • Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Sea Eagles chase a 47-point miracle

    Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Sea Eagles chase a 47-point miracle

    Men’s Premiership, Round 18 — Saturday, 22 August 2026, 3:30 pm at Blueforce Park.

    North Beach enter the final afternoon of the regular season with a mathematical route into the Top Four—but it requires one of the most extraordinary results of the year against the minor premiers.

    The Sea Eagles sit fifth on 17 competition points with a minus-42 points differential. Kalamunda are also shown on 17, but the Bulldogs have the Round 18 bye and will receive two points, taking them to 19 with their plus-four differential unchanged.

    A North Beach victory would also take the Sea Eagles to 19. To pass Kalamunda, however, they must overturn the 46-point differential gap.

    The clean equation is North Beach by 47 or more. A 46-point win works only in the exceptional circumstance that the Sea Eagles score at least 117 points, bringing the later points-scored tiebreak into play.

    North Beach have given themselves a chance through a strong closing run. They have won four of their past five matches, including three consecutive victories over Kwinana, Kalamunda and Ellenbrook. Across those five games they have scored 150 points and conceded 84, an average differential of plus-13.2.

    The required margin remains 11 points greater than their biggest win of the season, a 48–12 victory over Kwinana.

    Willagee present a dramatically different challenge. The Bears are 14–1, have scored 762 points and conceded only 192. They average 50.8 points for and 12.8 against, producing an average winning differential of 38 points per match. Their only defeat was by 10 points against South Perth.

    The first meeting this season finished 56–16 to Willagee—a 40-point Bears victory. North Beach must therefore transform that result into a win of at least 47, an 87-point reversal.

    The wider historical record offers the Sea Eagles more encouragement. North Beach have won eight of the 11 Men’s Premiership meetings between the clubs since 2018, averaging 42.5 points to Willagee’s 17.6. They also won 24–10 in Round 12 last season, although Willagee responded by eliminating North Beach 12–6 in the 2025 preliminary final before dominating the 2026 encounter.

    A basic season-average matchup model produces an indicative score of Willagee 39, North Beach 18. North Beach need to outperform that statistical baseline by more than 67 points to reach the required margin.

    This is not merely a must-win match. It is a must-win-by-47 match against a side that has not lost by more than 10 all season. North Beach have earned the opportunity to take their finals chase to Blueforce Park; now they need a result far beyond anything yet produced against the Bears in 2026.

    Key stat: North Beach need an 87-point turnaround from the teams’ 56–16 result in Round 9.

  • Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Roosters look to sharpen their edge before finals

    Men’s Premiership Round 18 Preview: Roosters look to sharpen their edge before finals

    Men’s Premiership, Round 18 — Saturday, 22 August 2026, 3:30 pm at Treeby Community & Sports Centre.

    Fremantle will complete their regular season against an Ellenbrook side playing for pride, with the Roosters looking to recover quickly from a narrow defeat and carry momentum into the finals.

    Third place is already secure for Fremantle. Their 10–4–1 record has delivered 25 competition points and neither the teams above nor the clubs chasing fourth can reach them in the final round. Ellenbrook are also out of finals contention: even a win would take the Rabbitohs only to 18 points, one short of Kalamunda’s total after the Bulldogs receive two points for their Round 18 bye.

    The ladder may be settled for both clubs, but the statistical matchup gives Fremantle plenty to play for. The Roosters average 39 points per match—the third-best attacking return in the competition—and concede 20.3. Ellenbrook score 25 per game while allowing 31, producing a season differential of minus-96.

    Fremantle had won four consecutive matches before Kalamunda edged them 30–28 in Round 17. That result ended a run that included a 100–0 victory over Kwinana and a 26–6 win against second-placed South Perth. Ellenbrook’s recent trajectory has moved in the opposite direction, with four losses in their past five outings. The Rabbitohs have conceded 30 or more in three of their past four matches.

    That long-term record makes Ellenbrook’s defensive start crucial. If the Rabbitohs allow Fremantle to establish field position and tempo early, the Roosters’ scoring average suggests the game could move away quickly. Ellenbrook’s opportunity is to turn the contest into a lower-possession, defensive grind and test how Fremantle respond after the disappointment of Round 17.

    A simple blend of each team’s scoring and defensive averages produces an indicative score of approximately Fremantle 35, Ellenbrook 22. It is not a formal prediction, but it underlines the statistical advantage held by the Roosters.

    For Fremantle, the result cannot change third place—but the quality of the performance could shape their finals campaign. For Ellenbrook, defeating a finalist would provide a significant finish to a difficult closing month.